Proprietary analysis on crude oil fundamentals, geopolitical risk, and price dynamics — direct from our trading desks in Houston, London, and Singapore.
Brent Crude
$84.20
WTI Crude
$82.95
Dubai Crude
$83.10
WTI-Brent Spread
-$1.25
VLCC TD3C
WS 68
Urals Discount
-$9.40
Compliance among OPEC+ members fell to 87% in July as Kazakhstan and Iraq continued to overproduce against their quotas. Meanwhile, US shale output hit a record 13.4M bbl/day. We model three scenarios for Brent through year-end and identify the key triggers to watch.
Tensions in the Gulf have pushed the Hormuz risk premium to its highest level since 2022. We assess the probability of a supply disruption and quantify the price impact across WTI, Brent, and Dubai grades.
The WTI-Brent spread has compressed sharply on the back of strong US export demand and Cushing inventory draws. We examine the structural drivers and identify when the arb window may reopen.
Very large crude carrier rates on the TD3C route surged to WS 68 as Atlantic Basin demand absorbed available tonnage. We break down the supply-side constraints and model the freight outlook through Q4.
China's crude imports rose to 11.8M bbl/day in July, led by independent teapot refiners restocking after Q2 maintenance. We assess the sustainability of the demand recovery and its impact on Middle Eastern grades.
The DXY index has fallen 4.2% since June, providing a mechanical tailwind for dollar-denominated crude prices. We examine the macro drivers behind the move and assess how long the correlation holds.
The Urals-Brent discount widened to $9.40/bbl as Western enforcement of the G7 price cap intensified. We map the shifting flows of Russian crude and identify which refiners are absorbing the displaced barrels.
Our market intelligence is available to qualified trading counterparties. Get in touch to discuss access.